Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Train wreck prediction - US Election

There are expected to be about 140 million voters in this election. (About 80% in some states. Historical national turnouts here)

Awesome!... but only if a candidate wins by a larg'ish margin... if not - there are going to be some problems:
Inconsistent rights: Some states (but not all states) will let you vote, as long as you are in line to vote come the cutoff (which I think is 8 o'clock). Some states (but not all of them) allowed early voting under state regulations which are different in each.

Delays in results: So (if its even close), I don't think they will be able to "call" states based on statistical samplings. i.e. how can you declare a winner when all the votes haven't even been cast yet?

Disenfranchisement: Some people inevitably won't be able to vote. There may be a huge number of them. Almost every state has, in part, deployed new touch screens (The Diebold debacle is well publicized, but I think this quote says it all: "In March 2007, it was reported by the Associated Press that Diebold was considering divesting itself of its voting machine subsidiary because it was "widely seen as tarnishing the company's reputation" - source). For that matter - check out here, here, here and here. Some have paper backups, some don't. If it is a close race (anywhere) expect lawsuits.

Lawsuits: Class action suits are going to fly as are cases from all candidates and all special interest groups. They have already started. McCain is suing Virginia to delay the election results for 10 days due to military votes not being sent out in time - source. Also in Virginia, the NAACP sued because (the republican state) didn't provide enough voting machines to neighborhoods that are predominantly black - Another source.
Some polling stations have already run out of ballots. Huge lists of voters get emails and letters that say they will have to pay parking fines before they are allowed to vote - don't even bother lining up. Misdirection, lies and dirty deeds from both sides are going to play out today.

I'm being a bit cynical here, but I think this is going to be a huge mess - at a time when the US needs anything but. Lets hope I am wrong.

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